Always Bet on Black Was Wesley Snipes Onto Something
Always Bet on Black Was Wesley Snipes Onto Something?
Always bet on black has to be one of the most iconic movie lines of all time. Of course, Wesley Snipes was talking about himself, and not roulette, when he said that infamous line back in the 1992 film, Passenger 57.
I recently re-watched Passenger 57, and began to wonder Was Wesley Snipes onto something? I decided to play 500 spins on roulette to find out!
I Put Always Bet on Black to the Test
Before I tell you about the results of this test, let me outline the parameters of it. To make sure that my individual decisions or biases didn t influence the test, I did the following.
- I used a generic roulette simulator which I found online. I didn t want to pick any specific software company like Microgaming, which would have been an individual preference.
- I set the simulator to auto-play. I set the simulator to play random numbers and even money bets so as to get a good mix.
- I used a European roulette variant for this test. That means there was only one zero pocket. I had slightly better odds than I would have if I d played American roulette.
- I set the simulator to stop after 500 spins for a large sample size. I also downloaded the results and set them up in a format that s easy to read for you.
Let s look at the results.
As you can see, from 500 spins, black came up 47% of the time, red results occurred on 48.8% of the spins, and the ball landed in the zero pocket on 4.2% of the spins.
So, I m disappointed to tell you, but there s absolutely nothing to Wesley Snipe s infamous line when it comes to roulette. On this occasion, you d have lost money if you always bet on black, but you wouldn t have been much better off if you had bet on red either.
Of course, the truth is that I already suspected this would be the case going in. That s because I understand how roulette games work. Now, I m going to explain to you why red and black will always come out about an even number of times when you play roulette long-term.
Understanding Roulette Odds
I make it a point to try and educate my readers whenever I can, and I also try to dispel myths, gambling superstitions, and false beliefs. Holding them will only cause you frustration, and even worse, could actually cause you to lose money when you play roulette and other casino games.
Like all casino games, cold-hearted math governs roulette.
- American Roulette When you make an even money red/black bet when playing American roulette, your odds of being right are 47.4%. That is regardless of whether you bet on red or black.
- European Roulette When you play single-zero European roulette games, your odds of being right are 48.6%. Why slightly better odds? It s because there s only one zero pocket, whereas, in American roulette there are two.
Scroll back up to our game results again and have a look. You ll find that the results, 48.8% (red) and 47% (black), are perfectly in alignment with what you d expect after learning about European roulette odds.
Any short-term deviance from these odds will be leveled out over enough hands. Sure, it s possible that black may come up 10 times in a row, and when it does, you can yell, Yeah, baby! Always bet on black! But it will all even out over a long enough timeline.
How Are Online Roulette Results Determined?
It s quite easy to understand how live roulette game outcomes are determined. You see the dealer spin the wheel, they release the ball from their hand, and it lands in either a red, black, or green pocket.
There are 18 opportunities each for it to land in red or black pockets (36 in total), and one for it to land in a green pocket when you play European roulette.
But what about when you play digital roulette games? How are roulette outcomes decided then?
That s where Random Number Generators come in. There s a top-notch article on RNGs here. In short, these are computer algorithms which generate millions, or even billions, of numbers per second. Each number is associated with a game outcome, in this case, a roulette number. When you hit spin, one of these numbers is selected, and the number will either be red, black, or green.
So, with always bet on black dead in the water as a piece of roulette advice, what can you do to improve your chances of winning roulette?
Five Roulette Tips That Work
First of all, forget about always betting on black. That might work in the short-term if you use the Martingale system but, as our results show, you won t get anywhere with it in the long run.
Here are the only effective roulette tips I m aware of:
- Always go European Pick European roulette when you have a choice. The house edge may only be slightly lower, but over hundreds of spins, that will add up. Over thousands of spins… You get the idea.
- Use roulette bonuses Some casinos will offer you no deposit bonuses or deposit matches. If you ve been playing for a while, they might offer you a reload bonus. Always take these, but be aware of their requirements. When bonuses are fair, they are literally free play on real money roulette. Why would you turn that down?
- Quit while you re ahead You ve already seen that, in the larger scheme of things, roulette results roughly even out to what game odds dictate. If you go on a winning streak and quadruple your money, WALK AWAY. You can t beat the house in the long run. Scroll back up, and study the results of my 500 spins. Do so for as long as it takes to sink in. You cannot defy math. It runs the universe, and it runs roulette, too.
- Forget roulette systems Just like always bet on black, the popular roulette systems will fail you in the long-term. Whether it s the Martingale, the Paroli, or the Fibonacci system, the gods of the odds will level all of them to the ground. These can work over the course of a few dozen spins but, over 500, they are rendered impotent. Just pick a number or an even money bet and spin.
- Understand the roulette bets Every roulette bet has different payouts and odds. If you re betting on single numbers, for example, you have a 2.7% chance of winning a 35-1 payout when playing European roulette. If you make a red or black bet, you have a 48.6% chance of doubling your money. Understanding all of the different roulette bets will help you make better betting decisions.
Conclusion
So, Wesley Snipes was wrong, at least when it comes to roulette. There s no way to beat the system. Roulette is a fun game of chance, and you have just as much of a chance of winning if you bet on red as you do on black. If you always bet on black, you will lose.
This has been a lot of fun for me, and I hope it was for you. If you enjoyed Passenger 57 and found this article useful, why not share it with your friends and fellow film fans? Oh, and while you re at it, why not test my results by putting them to the test for yourself?
The best progression for Red / Black
I was reading about a bet method on a published system for a different game and it seems to be worth trying on roulette. Especially for you lucky punters that have access to non-zero roulette. Or even single zero with la partage.
The bet selection is your choice. This bet method is based on Oscars Grind. That is, we increase our bet amount after a win and we keep it the same after a loss.
We have to keep track of 3 numbers. Units Lost, current bet size and a running total to be able to know when weve reached our win target. Losses starts out as 0, bet size starts out as 1 and of course running total starts out at zero. Every time we lose we increase Losses by the amount lost and the bet amount remains unchanged. Every time we win we increase the bet amount by 1 unit and we decrease Losses by the amount won. Every time we lose 2 times in a row, we stop betting until we have a virtual win then we start betting for real at the unit amount of the last bet we made.
This is a means of trying to prevent large streaks of losses from wiping us out. It is off-set by the reality that we may skip wins and come back to play and catch 2 more losses. If we do this once thats 4 losses in a row, and twice is 6 losses in a row. But all in all I think stopping after 2 losses and waiting for the losing streak to end is a safer idea.
The only reason we keep track of losses is that we have a chart that comes into play after weve won 2 times in a row. This tells us what to bet based on how many units we are down. Using this chart is entirely optional.
Units down Bet Amount
1-3 1
4-6 2
7-9 3
10 + 4
This chart accomplishes 2 things. First, it causes us to increase our bet size more rapidly if we just had a long stretch of losses and it lets us reduce our bet size if were betting larger units but have recovered most or all of our losses.
4 units is the largest bet we will be making and if we lose a 4 unit bet, we end that attack and re-set losses to 0 and bet size to 1. I also suggest that you re-set any time you reach a new high bank amount. Thats the basic skeleton of the bet method. It can be adjusted to suit your personal preferences. For example you can make a losing bet of 5 or 6 the stop-loss target.
The original version has us adding an extra unit to the losses number for every loss. This gives us some guaranteed profit if we get back to zero. I didnt include this factor because its just as easy to keep track of our total and make decisions accordingly.
Some observations
This is a very controlled money management strategy. It keeps the bets from escalating too high by ending the game on a 4 unit lost bet. This is a very important part of the method. Every bet selection will have periodic losing streaks. We either need to be prepared to bet a long progression, risking large numbers of units to try and stop a loss or we need to be willing to take small losses more often to keep from having to use a long expensive progression.
The above paragraph is in red because its the reality of most gambling systems. It has to be come to grips with if you intend to stay sane playing this game. Im not say that a long progression is dumb, Im just saying that if you use it, you have to be aware of the pitfalls and be willing to take a really big hit every now and then. Also, it takes a lot of guts to place the larger bet amounts so, Know thyself before you try to play using a steep progression.
Thats the method in a nutshell. Use it if you like it,
A minor tweak to this progression
Use any even chance bet selection method you like. Or for simplicity, just pick one of the even chances, such as Red and play Red only. Or if it makes you mad if you happen to pick the wrong color, play follow-the-last. That way youll catch all steaks of either color. What you wont like is RBRBRBRBRBRBR. But, theres no selection process that doesnt have a killer sequence.
The bet progression is what Im presenting here.
We will increase our bet size after 2 wins and well stay the same after a loss. The 2 wins dont have to be in a row and it doesnt matter how many losses are between them.
This is a possible sequence:
-1-1-1+1-1-1+1-2-2+2+2-3-3-3+3-3+3+4+4-4 = -5
Heres a winning sequence:
+1-1-1+1+2+2-3+3+3-4 = +3
4 units is the largest bet we make.
We play until we lose on a 4 unit bet.
We can win many 4 bets but when we lose a 4 unit bet we end the attack plus or minus.
I am tightening up my rules for playing this system.
I have changed the Chart. For all of you who have any respect for anything I write, Im
1. RBRBRBRB etc… Just alternate continuously. This will keep from having long losing stretches most of the time. The rule in the system of ending real betting after 2 losses in a row and then only resuming real betting after a win works well in conjunction with this bet method.
We have to keep track of 3 numbers.
Units Lost
Current bet size
Running total.Losses start out as 0, bet size starts as 1.
Every time we lose we increase Losses by the amount lost and the bet amount remains unchanged.
Every time we win we increase the bet amount by 1 unit and we decrease Losses by the amount won.
Every time we lose 2 times in a row, we stop betting until we have a virtual win then we start betting again.
The only reason we keep track of losses is that we have a chart that comes into play after weve won 2 times in a row. This tells us what to bet based on how many units we are down.
Units down Bet Amount
1-2 1
3-4 2
5-6 3
7-8 4
9 or more 5*
Continue to bet based on the chart as long as you are winning or until you reach 0, 1.As soon as you lose a bet from the chart, you go back to the normal betting rules.
This chart accomplishes 2 things. First, it causes us to increase our bet size more rapidly if we just had a long stretch of losses and it lets us reduce our bet size if were betting larger units but have recovered most or all of our losses.
*Note: This is the only time we will ever bet 5 units. Its when we have won 2 times in a row and we go to the chart and were down 9 units or more, then and only then can we bet 5 units. Never more than 5 units. Any time we lose a 5 unit bet we end the session and take our loss.
4 units is the largest bet we will make other then the 5 unit bet when using the chart. If we lose a 4 unit bet, we also end that attack and re-set losses to 0 and bet size to 1. Re-set everything any time you reach a new profit. That will be when the running total = +1.
You can stop looking for a better even chance system. There are none. There may be others as good, but none better. You can be fooled by long progressions, but they are just smoke and mirrors. In the end, the closer you stay to a flat bet, the better off youre going to be.
Im thinking this is as good as it gets.
Especially for baccarat where you have to bet large units.
It can be dialed back to limit the size of our bets even more. We can say that under normal betting when we lose a 3 unit bet we have to reset. That would mean on the chart wed have to drop the line for the 5 unit bet and say that any draw-down over 7 units results in a 4 unit bet. Any loss on the 4 unit bet causes a termination and overall reset.
When were betting from the chart, as long as we win we stay with the chart. If we lose at either 3 or 4 unit bets, this ends the attack, reset. If we win and the chart tell us to bet 2 units and we lose, then we go back to our progression line. I have been having very good results using the alternating bet selection process. The only thing that kills it is to be on the losing side of chops. In this case the stop after 2 losses until a win to resume betting helps stabilize the system.
Im always trying to tweak it to be better. It actually does well if we go to the chart after every win instead of waiting for 2 wins in a row. Also using the chart after 2 wins but not necessarily in a row works also.
When you test a session, check and see if alternating R/B or B/P does as well, worse or better than the bet selection you used. Also, see if one of the options sending us to the chart more frequently helps any. Or, dont mess with it at all. It works fine as is! I just need to leave well enough alone.
Roulette-Bet comment: We dont know about the STOP-RESTART idea of this system, but we DO LIKE the progression. Also you can minimize your win target to just two units instead of five.
What Are The Odds of Red or Black Spinning In a Row?
Around 20 years ago, when I had no idea about winning roulette, I approached a roulette table with around 10 reds in a row. I thought to myself that black is due to spin next. After all, what are the chances of red winning again, right? Well I lost. Then I said to myself Id have to be very unlucky to lose again. So I increased my bet, and lost again. This happened for the next few spins, until I eventually blew my entire bankroll. I lost everything that I so proudly won earlier with my dozens betting system. Only many years later did I understand my delusion.
The image shown here looks crazy I know. It was originally published by a player who seemed to want to discredit the casino. But the truth is the casino staff were adjusting the wheel and attached equipment, which gave the strange readings. It is still possible such a sequence will spin, but Ill explain more about it later.
The odds of red or black spinning in a row
On the European wheel, there are 37 numbers. 18 are black, and 18 are red. So the odds of red spinning are 18/37 = 0.4865. The odds of black spinning are the same. And its the same for any even chance bet including highs and lows, and odds and evens. The odds do not change no matter how many reds or blacks have spun in a row. Consider again my loss when I bet on black. What I failed to realize is the odds of black or red spinning next are not affected by previous sequences. There is an exception that i wont explain in this article, but the statement is true in the cases of almost every losing roulette system.
Take my situation for example. Some players at the table thought red was on a winning streak, and that it would continue. I saw it differently and expected the streak to end. Who was right? Actually none of us were right. I just happened to get unlucky.
If you want to get technical, the odds of red then black spinning are 1 in (0.4865 x 0.4865). But its the same as red then red spinning, or black then black.
The odds of dozens spinning in a row
There are three dozens on the table, and 37 numbers. So the odds of a dozen spinning once is 12/37. Again the odds dont change based on previous dozens. They will always be the same. If youre new to roulette, it may be hard to get your head around the concept. But keep in mind thinking that streaks will continue or end is one of the most common misconceptions about gambling. It is a concept that is old as history itself. Billions of gamblers have applied the principles and lost. It might be wise to consider what so many people have learned.
The mistakes you dont know youre making
If you need convincing of the above, I suggest run hundreds of thousands of trials with automated software. Or even use a simple excel chart. Count the number of times red and red spin, then check the odds that red or black will spin next. the result is the odds are still the same, for both red and black. Actually I created free software to demonstrate this principle. The interface is shown below.
Basically you load as many spins as you want into a text file, then ask the software to find a sequence of numbers like 0,0,0. This will check how many times 0 spun three times in a row. Then check how many times the numbers 23,4,15 spin in this exact sequence. If you test enough numbers (millions or more is advised), youll find the odds are still the same. So the odds of 0,0,0 are the same as 1,2,3 or 3,2,1 or 14,12,34 and so on. So next time you see three zeros in a row, dont be so surprised. Because really its the same as any other three numbers. Its merely more recognizable to you. After all, three zeros seems pretty obvious on the marquee (where winning numbers are displayed).
Maybe you now understand this. But heres the part you may not understand yet . . .
Most roulette systems use a betting progression. For example, after 3 reds in a row, you bet on black. But this is fundamentally the same as after red,black and red, you bet black. There is no difference. To take it a step further, now consider adding betting progression where you increase bet size after losses. You may think youre increasing your chance of winning, but all youre actually doing is changing the amount you risk. Heres proof:
If you saw red, red and red spin in a row, you may bet $100 on black and lose. For now forgetting the existence of green zero, the odds of you losing that $100 is 50%. Next you double your bet to $200 and hope to win back your $100 and win an extra $200. But the reality is you have just made two completely independent bets as per below:
Bet 1: $100 on red (50% chance of winning)
Bet 2: $200 on red (50% chance of winning)
The math is very simple. Nothing has changed except the amount you have bet. You can either get lucky and win back your losses, or lose big. Will the casino owner be upset if you get lucky and win? No because they know for every winner, theres a loser. And in the bigger picture, there are more losers than winners. In fact casinos actually need people to win sometimes, to keep hope alive.
Conclusion
To win roulette consistently, you need to see past the illusion of sequences and patterns. Patterns like 1,2,3 spinning make sense to us, but really its no different to 32,4,10 spinning. And betting progression wont change anything except the amount you win. The only way to beat roulette is by changing the odds of you winning, and this is not done by looking for repeating numbers, or numbers that havent spun in a while. It is done by understanding why the ball lands where it does, and using this knowledge to properly assess a wheel and predict spin outcomes.
To get the best free roulette systems that really work, see the top 5 proven roulette systems and the video series below. It's the best 100% free information for winning roulette you'll find. It's written by professionals who are really earning a living from roulette.
Roulette: what are the odds of hitting red after 8 x black?
One question about Roulette that we get asked a lot is: when the same colour (for instance black) hits multiple times (for instance 8 times) in a row, what are the odds of hitting red on the next spin?
Are the odds of the Roulette ball landing on red higher or lower than the odds of hitting black? Many people will think that the odds of hitting black for a ninth time are very low. After all, this colour has already hit eight times in a row. So statistically, red has to be due, right? But is that the case?
And would it be possible to design a winning Roulette strategy based on the Roulette wheel s past outcomes?
Roulette: how to determine the odds of hitting red
To answer this question correctly, we must first calculate the ball s odds landing on red in one single spin. For argument s sake, we will pick European (also called French) Roulette as the game of choice.
A European Roulette table has one zero (green), 18 red and 18 black slots. In total there are 37 slots for the roulette ball to land on.
The odds that the Roulette ball will land on red is 18/37 = 48.6%.
The odds that the ball will land on red two times in a row is 48.6% x 48.6% = 23.6%.
The odds that the colour red will hit three times in a row is 48.6% x 48.6% x 48.6% = 11.4%. Etcetera Etcetera.
De odds that the Roulette ball will hit a red slot 8x in a row is 0.31%. In other words, it is quite rare for this to happen, but it can happen. Series of 30 times consecutive hits on the colour Red has been documented.
What are the odds of hitting red after 8 x black?
The odds of hitting red after 8 successive spins on black is precisely 48.6%. A Roulette wheel has no memory, and every spin is independent of the one before. A Roulette wheel does not look at statistics, nor does it have the ability to determine when a specific result is due .
Even if the colour black has been hit 300 times in a row, the odds of hitting red on the next spin are the same as the odds of the Roulette ball landing on the colour black again.
Long successive patterns of Roulette outcomes say absolutely nothing about the possible result of the next spin!
Wait a minute. Then why do casinos always show the latest Roulette results?
An excellent question. The reason? It is to fuel a phenomenon that is called the Gambler s Fallacy . A large percentage of gamblers believes that results from the past are somehow an indication of future results. They are looking for patterns or trends, that will help them place winning Roulette bets. Although patterns are undeniably there, they have no influence whatsoever on future outcomes.
Casinos tap into these beliefs by showing the results of past Roulette spins, and by doing that, enticing the players to place one more bet. After all, number 11 has to hit soon. It has not been hit for 200 spins!
Now you know why it does not work this way. By all means, enjoy your game of Roulette. Just don t go chasing a certain outcome because it is due .
All spins are random and independent of each other, which is a good thing, by the way. We would never want to play at Roulette wheels that have been tampered with in any way.
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