The Ultimate Texas Hold; em Odds Calculator

The Ultimate Texas Holdem Odds Calculator

Was that Texas Holdem poker hand you just lost actually a bad beat, or did you just make a bad decision based on the odds? Use this instant poker odds calculator to find out.

Is that mediocre hand you cant resist a favorite against what your opponents typically play?

Was your winning hand actually a good play for the pot odds you got, or did you just get lucky?

This calculator was custom-developed by Beat The Fish for accuracy and ease of use.

Simply select your cards, your opponents cards, and any community cards to simulate a poker hand. It will automatically calculate the odds of each poker hand to win, lose, or tie.

You can insert as many opponents and community cards as youd like and the odds software will instantly update based on the new scenario.

Click the X above a players hand to remove it or the Clear All button at the top to start the hand over completely.

How is a Texas Holdem poker odds calculator useful?

A poker odds calculator shows you the exact odds of your hand winning in any scenario.

For example, you can give yourself pocket Aces, opponent 1 pocket Kings, and opponent 2 pocket Queens. The poker odds software will then calculate how often each hand wins.

One of the best uses of a poker odds calculator is to review key plays from your last playing session and determine if you made the right decision.

Simulate an instant example hand

For example, lets say you had a key hand come up where you called a pot-sized bet on the turn with a flush draw against an opponent that ended up having top pair. You can set the calculator to determine the odds of you winning with that flush draw and compare that to the pot odds you received.

If the poker hand simulator says you only win the hand 19% (4 to 1 odds) of the time, but you had to call a pot-sized bet to see the river (2 to 1 pot odds), then you shouldnt have made the call.

You can also use the poker calculator to help commit common odds and situations to memory.

For example, you can run simulations of straight, flush, or other draws to get a feel for how often theyll mathematically be completed over the long run.

With odds calculator software, you can find out which poker hand wins by inserting any cards you want

? What is a Texas Hold'em odds calculator?

A Hold'em calculator allows you to simulate any poker hand and see the winning percentages for each player. You can customize the community cards and add up to 10 players using the Beat The Fish hand simulator.

? Do you need to know a huge list of odds to be a winning poker player?

No, and, in fact, I recommend that beginning poker players don't waste their time memorizing odds that rarely come up. As long as you know how to calculate pot odds and the odds for the most important draws, you can still become a winning player.

? What are the most important odds in Texas Hold'em?

I recommend that beginners start to keep in mind the most common drawing situations: pocket pairs turning into a set and straight/flush draws. The odds are 7.5:1 for hitting a set on the flop from a pocket pair. For open-ended straights or flush draws on the flop, it's around 2:1 to hit by the river.

? Which online poker sites do you recommend using this calculator on?

You can use this poker hand calculator to replicate hands you played at any poker site. Simply plug in your hole cards, the opponents, and any community cards. You'll instantly see your long-term winning percentage in that situation.

Why do you need to know poker odds?

Besides reviewing your poker play later to see if you made the correct play based on the actual odds, you should memorize the most important odds for use while you play.

If you have a drawing hand, such as a flush or straight draw, youll want to make sure youre getting the correct price on your bet or call compared to the odds of making your hand.

You should be armed with the ability to calculate the most common scenarios in your head during a hand.

Im a firm believer that you can still be a successful poker player without knowing the odds for every single type of situation at the table, but you should memorize the most common situations on the flop:

  • Open-ended straight draws
  • Flush draws
  • Hitting on your overcards to the flop
  • Hitting a set on the flop with your pocket pair

Poker Odds You Should Memorize

True to my word, I only think you need to know basic math to make correct plays in poker. However, there are a few odds that come up often at the poker table that I recommend you memorize.

Knowing these odds helps you most on the flop with a draw or with a made hand which you want to protect against an opponent with a draw.

OutsYour HandDrawing ToOdds to Hit on the TurnOdds to Hit by the River
4Inside (Gutshot) StraightStraight11:15:1
8Open-Ended StraightStraight5:12:1
9Four to a FlushFlush4:12:1
15Straight + Flush DrawStraight or Flush2:11:1

Note that these odds are rounded to the nearest whole number to make it easier for you to memorize. For more specific odds, check the full odds chart a couple of sections below.

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Even though the 15 out hand situation sounds rare, youll actually run into it fairly often when playing powerful suited hands like A K or A Q .

I want you to keep in mind how strong of a drawing hand this is when you get it. You end up with 9 outs for the flush draw and 6 more for the straight. Its only 6 instead of 8 because 2 of those outs were used for the flush. In poker odds, you dont count outs twice if you can make multiple hands.

In Texas Holdem, you can be a winning player simply by knowing common odds and comparing them to the pot odds youre getting.

How do you figure out pot odds in poker?

Pot odds in poker simply means the price that it costs you to continue with your hand.

For example, if youre in a hand where the pot is $100 and your opponent bets $50, youre getting 3 to 1 pot odds to call. The pot is $150 (the $100 thats already there plus the $50 bet) and it costs $50 to continue. Divide the $150 by $50 to get 3.

You say that number to 1 and those are your pot odds. Understanding pot odds is an essential poker concept because you should always compare the odds of making a drawing hand against the pot odds youre actually receiving.

What are poker outs?

Poker outs are cards to come that will improve your hand.

For example, if you have a Flush Draw on the flop, you have 9 outs to complete. There are 13 cards in each suit minus the 4 you already know about (your 2 hole cards plus 2 on the flop of the same suit).

Another example is 8 outs for an Open-Ended Straight Draw (4 of each card above and below your draw that will complete the Straight). There would be 1 out for a Set to turn into Four of a Kind because theres just one more of that card value left in the deck.

Knowing how to count your poker outs, or cards that will improve your hand, will be incredibly useful for making correct decisions.

Poker odds chart

The following chart will show you the odds to improve your hand based on how many outs you have. Ive also included the percentages.

If you want to see the detailed math involved with these odds as well as odds for almost any Holdem situation you can imagine, PokerDope has an excellent page on that.

First, figure out how many outs you have and then if youre on the flop, turn, or want to know the odds from the flop all the way to the river. Ive bolded what I think are the most common situations where knowing the odds can help you make a correct call.

Note that the odds are slightly better going from the turn to the river than the flop to the turn because theres one fewer unknown card left in the deck.

# of OutsFlop to Turn OddsTurn to River OddsFlop to River OddsTypical Hand Scenario(s)
146:1 (2.1%)45:1 (2.2%)22.3:1 (4.3%)Smaller Set against a Higher Set, Set to Four of a Kind
222.5:1 (4.3%)22:1 (4.3%)10.9:1 (8.4%)Pocket Pair to Set, Open-Ended Straight Flush Draw
314.7:1 (6.4%)14.3:1 (6.5%)7:1 (12.5%)One Overcard
410.8:1 (8.5%)10.5:1 (8.7%)5.1:1 (16.5%)Inside (Gutshot) Straight Draw, Two Pair to a Full House
58.4:1 (10.6%)8.2:1 (10.9%)3.9:1 (20.3%)Smaller Pair against a Higher Pair, One Pair to Two Pair or Trips
66.8:1 (12.8%)6.7:1 (13%)3.1:1 (24.1%)Two Overcards, No Pair to Pair
75.7:1 (14.9%)5.6:1 (15.2%)2.6:1 (27.8%)Inside (Gutshot) Straight Draw, Set to Full Hour or Four of a Kind
84.9:1 (17%)4.8:1 (17.4%)2.2:1 (31.5%)Open-Ended Straight Draw
94.2:1 (19.1%)4.1:1 (19.6%)1.9:1 (35%)Flush Draw
103.7:1 (21.3%)3.6:1 (21.7%)1.6:1 (38.4%)Inside (Gutshot) Straight Draw and Two Overcards
113.3:1 (23.4%)3.2:1 (23.9%)1.4:1 (41.7%)
122.9:1 (25.5%)2.8:1 (26.1%)1.2:1 (45%)Inside (Gutshot) Straight Draw and Flush Draw
132.6:1 (27.7%)2.5:1 (28.3%)1.1:1 (48.1%)
142.4:1 (29.8%)2.3:1 (30.4%)1:1 (51.2%)
152.1:1 (31.9%)2.1:1 (32.6%)0.9:1 (54.1%)Open-Ended Straight and Flush Draw, Flush Draw with Two Overcards

Use the 2 and 4 Hack when you forget the odds

What happens if youre in the middle of a hand and you forget the odds to improve your hand? With the rule of 2 and 4, youre still good as long as you can figure out your outs.

How does it work? To see the percentage of your hand improving by the next card, you simply multiply your outs by 2. If youre on the flop and want to know how youll fare by the river, multiply your outs by 4.

Note that you wont get the exactly correct poker odds using this shortcut, but its close enough to make a good decision.

Lets look at a couple examples to see how this works.

If youre on the flop and have a flush draw, you have 9 outs. How do you know that? Take the 13 poker cards of that suit and subtract the 2 in your hand and the 2 on the flop. That leaves 9. Multiplying that by 2 gives you 18, or around an 18% chance to complete your flush on the turn. Multiplying it by 4 gets you a 36% to complete it by the river.

The actual percentage odds for a flush draw hitting on the turn and then by the river are 19.1% and 35% respectively, getting you pretty close with the 2 and 4 hack.

This system works well in any situation with any number of outs.

If you can count your outs but cant remember the exact odds of improving your hand, you can use the 2 and 4 shortcut.

If you have an inside (or gutshot) straight draw, you have 4 outs because you need just one specific card value and there are 4 of each card value in the deck. Double that to get an 8% chance to hit the straight on the turn and multiply it by 4 to get a 16% chance to hit it by the river.

The actual poker odds of hitting an inside straight on the turn and then by the river are 8.5% and 16.5% respectively. Pretty darn close.

Just remember this at the table: double your outs for your chance of hitting on the turn and multiply by 4 to see how often youll hit by the river.

Figuring out correct Holdem poker odds without much math

Contrary to what some poker strategists preach, you don t need to memorize a long list of odds and perform complex mathematics to be a winning Texas Hold em player.

However, there are some simple Texas Holdem odds and probabilities that you should know well when you re drawing to a hand or want to prevent your opponents from doing so.

Heres the bottom line:

If you figure that your draw will be the best hand if you hit it, just compare the odds of you hitting that hand to the odds the pot is giving you to decide if you re making a mathematically sound play.

You will run into this situation often at the table, either offline or playing at online poker sites, so get into the habit of comparing the actual odds of making your hand against the pot odds youre receiving.

The odds below are separated into pre-flop and post-flop sections and, while some are essential, some were thrown in for fun.

The odds of receiving certain hands pre-flop are out of your control, but it can help you from having unrealistic expectations

Preflop Texas Holdem Odds

Bold text = most common playing decisions and thus most important to commit to memory.

If I recommend that you memorize a vital statistic it will be bolded and you will run into it frequently playing Texas Hold em. In parenthesis, the probability will be expressed in percentages to the nearest tenth.

These odds won t really affect your game strategy, but I want it to give you perspective on how rare certain premium cards are. At the same time, realize that many players overvalue random suited cards, which are dealt relatively frequently. However, the odds that these hands will improve are much less.

Probability of being dealt:

  • Any pocket pair: 16 to 1 (5.9%)
  • Two suited cards: 3.25 to 1 (23.5%)
  • A-K (Big slick suited or offsuit): 81.9 to 1 (0.9%)
  • Any single ace: 5.7 to 1 (15%)
  • Pocket Aces: 220 to 1 (0.5%)
  • Pocket Aces or Kings: 110 to 1 (1%)

Odds of connecting with the Flop in Holdem

This is where true strategy and comparing pot odds to the actual odds of hitting a better hand come into play. Ive listed the most essential common situations of what youre looking to hit on the flop. Its a wise idea to try to commit the approximate values to memory so you can quickly make pre-flop decisions at the table.

  • Hitting another kind of your pocket pair (making a set): 7.5 to 1 (11.8%)
  • You will pair at least one of your unpaired hole cards: 2.1 to 1 (32.4%)
  • Hitting two or more of your suit when you hold suited cards: 7.5 to 1 (11.8%)
  • Hitting a flush on the flop with suited hole cards: 118 to 1 (0.8%)
  • You will hit two pair on the flop with unpaired hole cards: 49 to 1 (2%)

Odds On the Flop in Texas Holdem

The flop is the turning point of a Holdem hand. This is where youre going to make your biggest and most expensive decisions. Knowing the odds of improving your hand after the flop is one of the most important things to remember in Holdem.

These Holdem odds, combined with the reading of your opponent(s), will entirely shape whether you continue with a drawing hand or how you make it an incorrect play for your opponent(s) to draw out on your made hand. Youll especially want to protect against this at looser online poker sites like Ignition Poker or Global Poker.

This is especially where outs come into your line of thinking and how all of these Texas Holdem odds are generated. For example, if you have 4 cards to a flush you have 9 outs to make your hand on the turn. There are 13 cards per suit and you have 4 of them.

There are 9 unknown cards left that could complete your flush so you have 9 outs out of 47 total unknown cards (52 cards in the deck your 2 cards and 3 more on the flop). This is how Texas Holdem odds are calculated. Rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, 9/47 = 19.1, or a 19.1% chance to hit your flush on the turn.

Straight and Flush Draw Odds

Drawing to open-ended straights and flushes, or fear of your opponents doing so, is one of the most common scenarios in Holdem. Again, compare the following odds to the pot odds youre receiving in order to calculate if it is correct to continue your draw.

On the flop, when you have:

  • Four cards to a flush, you will complete it on the turn: 4.2 to 1 (19.1%)
  • An open-ended straight, you will complete it on the turn: 4.9 to 1 (17.9%)
  • A set, you will complete a Full House or Four of a Kind on the turn: 5.7 to 1 (14.9%)
  • Two pair, you will complete a Full House on the turn: 10.8 to 1 (8.5%)

Odds of hitting a hand by the river from the flop

The following set of odds is the likelihood to complete these hands by the river on the flop, so with 2 cards to come.

On the flop, when you have:

  • Four cards to a flush, you will complete it by the river: 1.9 to 1 (35%)
  • An open-ended straight, you will complete it by the river: 2.2 to 1 (32%)
  • An inside (gutshot) straight draw, you will complete it by the river: 5.1 to 1 (17%)
  • Two pair, you will complete at least a Full House by the river: 5 to 1 (17.7%)
  • Three of a kind, you will complete at least a Full House by the river: 2 to 1 (33.4%)
  • One pair, you will complete at least three of a kind by the river: 10.9 to 1 (8.4%)
  • An open-ended straight flush draw, you will complete at least a straight by the river: 0.9 to 1 (54.1%)
  • An open-ended straight flush draw, you will complete it by the river: 10.9 to 1 (8.4%)

All-in One-on-One in Texas Holdem

This comes up most often in tournaments when only two players are involved and one of them is all-in. When all of your money goes in preflop against one opponent no further decisions need to be made and the cards will be dealt to the river to determine a winner.

Preflop matchups when played to showdown:

  • Larger pocket pair vs. smaller pocket pair (AA vs. KK): Larger pair is at least an 80% favorite
  • Pocket Aces vs. unpaired cards (AA vs. KQ): Pocket Aces are at least an 80% favorite
  • Pocket Pair vs. overcards (QQ vs. AK): Pocket pair is at least a 52% favorite (commonly referred to as a coin flip)
  • Pocket Pair vs. one overcard (JJ vs. A10): Pocket pair is at least a 66% favorite
  • Overcards vs. Undercards (AK vs. Q10): Overcards are at least a 57% favorite
  • One overcard (A3 vs. J10): Overcard is at least a 50% favorite
  • Better kicker (AK vs. AJ): Better kicker is at least a 70% favorite

Just-for-Fun Texas Holdem odds

These statistics probably wont affect your game in the slightest, but its interesting to know what some of the extreme odds are in Holdem.

  • If youre holding a pair, the flop will bring you four of a kind about 1 in 119 tries, or 0.84% of the time.
  • The odds are 70.5 to 1 (1.4%) that no one at the table has an Ace or a King at a 10-handed table.
  • The odds are 87,897 to 1 (0.01%) that you will not be dealt an Ace or a pair for 50 hands.
  • You will be dealt pocket Aces four consecutive times 1 in 2,385,443,281 times. Expressed as a percentage, it will happen 0.00000004% of the time.

The easiest way to tighten up your Holdem game? Know the odds of improving your hand against the odds the pot is giving you

More on Holdem odds

If youd like to see, on average, how every Texas Holdem hand plays out long-term against random opponents, you can check out my calculations at the following page. This tells you a hands overall strength in relation to every other hand.

No Texas Holdem probability has much context without comparing it to the odds the pot is giving you.

In no-limit games you should often also consider the implied odds if you feel you have a strong read on a hand.

More Holdem odds references

A lifelong poker player who moved online in 2004, Josh founded Beat The Fish in 2005 to help online poker players make more-informed decisions on where to play and how to win once they got there. He hopes to counter the rampant dishonesty in online gaming media with objective reviews and relevant features. Tech nostalgic. Fondly remembers the soup avatar at Doyles Room.

All In Match Up Odds

The table below shows the odds of each hand winning in typical all-in match ups in Texas Holdem. The percentage chance of winning assumes that both players are all-in and that all 5 community cards will be dealt to determine a winner. The table also assumes that there are no other players in the hand, although the results should be very similar.

All-in hands probability odds chart.

Typical Match Up Hand 1 Hand 2
Under Pair vs. Overcards T T 57% 43% A K
Overpair vs. Pair K K 80% 20% 9 9
2 Overcards vs. 2 Undercards A Q 63% 37% 5 7
Dominated Hand A J 79% 21% J T
Very Dominated Hand Q Q 89% 11% Q J
Overcard vs. Dominated Kicker A 9 29% 71% 9 9
Pair vs. 1 Overcard 8 8 69% 31% A 5
1 Overcard vs. 2 Middle Cards J 4 57% 43% 6 8

How to use the all in match-ups odds chart.

The table can be used to estimate your chances of winning in common all-in situations, however, the table does not highlight the exact probabilities for the certain match-ups in general.

For example: in the pair v overcards match-up, 2 2 would be a 53% favorite against A K instead of being a slightly stronger favorite like T T with a 57% chance of winning. The is due to other factors such as the increased probability that two overpairs will appear on the board creating a higher two-pair with a better kicker for the player holding A K .

All in match up odds evaluation.

As you can see from the table, some of the match-ups are closer than you might expect them to be. For example, if you have another player dominated with a hand like A J against J

T , your opponent will win the pot 1 time in 4. Therefore you should be careful not to become overly excited when cards like these are turned over in an all-in situation, because your opponent is not always as far behind as you think.

Another interesting all-in match up is the very common AK versus an under pair. The table shows that although the odds are fairly even, the under-pair will usually have the slight advantage.

This means that it is always better to be pushing all-in rather than calling an all-in with AK if necessary, because to call with AK against an under pair is a losing play in the long run. By pushing all-in with AK you give your opponent the opportunity to fold for fear of an overpair, which will improve your expectation in the long run.

These Texas Hold em Charts Will Help You Win Each Time!

If you are to become a pro player at Texas Hold em, there are certain charts that you need to know to get a deep understanding of the moves you need to make. These Texas Hold em charts include generic poker charts related to hand rankings, starting hands, poker range chart, bankroll management and so on. Here have listed out the most helpful Texas Hold em charts for you to go through, which will help you win games more often than not. First, we will start some of the common Texas Hold em charts, related to the hand rankings and nicknames before getting into the serious business.

Poker Chart of Winning Hands: Hand Rankings

Here is a poker chart of the names of all the winning hands that you can possibly have with their respective examples. A Royal Flush is the best hand with the High Card being the least favorable one.

A-K-Q-J-T (all of the same suit)

8-7-6-5-4 (all of the same suit)

Full House (Boat)

A-A-A-J-J (three of one, two of the other)

A-J-8-4-2 (all of the same suit)

8-7-6-5-4 (of various suits)

A-Q-9-6-3 (different suits, non-connected, unpaired)

A Texas Hold em Chart with Top 10 Starting Hands

When it comes to poker, certain starting hands give you an added advantage over others. To give you a basic idea about them, here is a Texas Hold em chart that consists of top 10 starting hands and their abbreviations. These hands will help you earn more money than others.

Poker chart for common nicknames for starting hands

Nicknames for hands in poker are quite common and knowing them will help you learn the game quickly from professional players. Having conversations about the game and how to ace it will surely help you grow as a player. You definitely would not want to go blank while they talk about Poker using these nicknames.

Poker chart: Nicknames for commonly made hands

Apart from the starting hands, there are nicknames for made-hands as well. They are as follows:

A-2-3-4-5 straight flush

Poker Range Chart: Which are the starting hands that you should play?

Before we get into the poker range charts about the starting hands you should play from each position, we show you a hand matrix that consists of all the possible hands that you can get pre-flop. We have not accounted for individual suits. Note that hands with the letter o at the side are the off-suit ones and the ones with s are the suited ones. Since the pairs are all off-suit ones, they are not labelled. Also, the number at the below represents the number of combinations possible at each hand.

Poker Range Chart

Now, here are the poker range charts that show the hands that you must play, while raising the hand first in. It is important that you pick a range of hands that you believe will be the strongest play with the given situation. You should make the raise in a consistent manner, so that the opponents do not get a clue about what you are holding. We would suggest you to make the raise from anywhere between 2.5 times to 4 times the size of the big bling if you have a good enough hand.

Here is a poker range chart representing the starting hands for the player at the Under The Gun position.

Starting Hands for the Player at the Under The Gun position

Here is a poker range chart representing the starting hands for the player at the Under The Gun +1 position.

starting hands for the player at the Under The Gun +1 position

Here is a poker range chart representing the starting hands for the player at the Under The Gun +2 position.

starting hands for the player at the Under The Gun +2 position

Here is a poker range chart representing the starting hands for the player at the Lo-Jack position.

starting hands for the player at the Lo-Jack position

Here is a poker range chart representing the starting hands for the player at the Hi-Jack position.

starting hands for the player at the Hi-Jack position.

Here is a poker range chart representing the starting hands for the player at the Cutoff position.

starting hands for the player at the Cutoff position.

Here is a poker range chart representing the starting hands for the player at the Button position.

starting hands for the player at the Button position.

Here is a poker range chart representing the starting hands for the player at the Small Blind position.

starting hands for the player at the Small Blind position.

Now that you know the hands that you must play during the Pre-flop from different positions, you must have gotten an idea about the best hands. Note that, if you are in the button position, the options of a good hand rise tremendously. In fact, there might be cases where both the blinds fold and you win the game without even being required to see the flop. Therefore, you should memorize such Texas Hold em charts over time to ace the game. Of-course, the scenarios change with post-flop, turn and the river, but these moves are surely the ones that will give you a head-start over the others.

Poker Chart of Poker Blinds: Names of Table Stakes

Whenever it comes to poker games, you must know the blind level. It is very important. The online games are slightly different than real table games, as in there, the blinds are equated to stakes. So, you need to make sure that you are well-versed with both the terminologies.

Best Odds of Winning With Top Poker Hands

There is no better feeling in poker than being dealt a premium hand or flopping a monster. Most sessions you play get down to long hours of grind with a few of these spots added to the mix. So, when it finally happens, it s hard not to get excited.

However, people often don t know the exact odds of winning with strong hands in Texas Hold em poker . Sometimes, they ll overvalue their holdings; sometimes, they ll undervalue them.

In this article, I'll try to shed some light on the topic of the odds of winning with top poker hands. After reading it, you ll have a much better idea of what to expect from your strong holdings. This information can be quite valuable as you can use it to plan your strategy in any given hand.

The Best Starting Hand: Winning Chances with Pocket Aces

After hours of mostly folding or playing small pots with mediocre hands, you finally look down to see you ve been dealt the best starting hand in poker. Everyone likes getting pocket aces , but not everyone understands just how strong they are.

Speaking in a vacuum, pocket aces will win about 85% of the time against any random hand if you can get all in against a single opponent before the flop.

If you find yourself against pocket kings, which is one of the likeliest scenarios if you re playing 100 big blinds deep and are all in before the flop, your winning chances will be 81%. Against pocket queens, your odds are slightly lower, but you re still over 80% favorite to win.

Naturally, your winning chances decrease with the number of opponents involved. Against two players holding random cards, aces are still a big favorite to win. For example, if you were up against both pocket kings and pocket queens, you d still be over 65% to scoop the pot. You can check out this page to find even more info about odds and percentages.

Other Big Pocket Pairs: Kings and Queens

Big pocket pairs, specifically pocket kings and queens, are very strong holdings in Hold em. Unless you run into pocket aces (or pocket kings, when holding pocket queens), you ll have big winning chances.

Against any other pair, pocket kings and queens will be around 82% favorite to win, so in this scenario, there is almost no difference whether you have aces, kings, or queens.

However, if you find yourself all in before the flop, you'll often be against another very strong starting hand ace-king (AK). When this happens, your winning odds will look something like this:

  • KK vs. AK suited 65.6% favorite
  • KK vs. AK off 69.7% favorite
  • QQ vs. AK suited 53.6% favorite
  • QQ vs. AK off 57% favorite

As you can see, the classic coin-flip, i.e., QQ vs. AK, isn't quite the coin-flip at all. If you have pocket queens against AK off-suite, you are a solid favorite to win the hand. In cash games, given an option, you'd always want to take these poker odds and run with them. Over a large enough sample, you ll end up winning heaps.

Odds of Winning With a Flopped Set

Apart from the big ones, pocket pairs are actually quite tricky to play in Hold em. When you do play these poker hands, you do so in hopes of flopping a set and stacking your opponent.

The odds of this happening, i.e. another four showing up on the flop when you re holding pocket fours, are about 7.5 to 1 or around 12%.

So, it s not easy to flop a set in the first place, but what are your odds of actually winning the pot by the river when you do?

The math isn t as clear here, as this largely depends on what you re up against. For example, against a naked top pair, your bottom set can be 95% to 98% favorite, depending on what backdoor options there are. The ideal scenario is flopping a set and getting it in against someone who paired up their ace with a hand like AK.

Against a naked flush draw, you ll be about 75% favorite to win, which is quite a big number. I often see people over-valuing their flush draws, but the fact is, if you re up against a set, you ll only win one in four times by the river.

The odds of your set holding against an open-ended straight draw are roughly the same.

So, all in all, if we take all the likely scenarios, your flopped set will win around 82% of the time which is pretty much the same odds you have of winning with pocket aces.

Odds of Winning With Other Strong Hands

There are many other strong poker hands you'll get to see while playing Hold'em, and it's not necessarily easy to say what your winning chances will be as it will depend on your opponents' exact holdings. However, I've tried to make a list of the most popular ones:

  • Flopped flush vs. a stronger flush draw: 68% chance of winning
  • Flopped full against an over-pair: 91% odds of winning
  • Flopped under-full against trips: 77% winning chances
  • Straight against a flopped set: 65% odds of winning
  • Straight against two pair on the flop: 82% winning chances

These cover some of the most common scenarios you can find yourself in at the tables. Poker is an unpredictable game, so there is no telling what can happen during any given session. That said, these numbers should help you navigate your way through a majority of the usual spots.

Keep in mind that these numbers are calculated for a large sample of hands. It s entirely possible for your flopped sets to lose three times in one session. That doesn t mean there is anything wrong with the math. It s just poker variance for you, and you ll have to learn to accept it and embrace it if you want to have a future in poker!

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